Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 57.451701 67.324763 78.093627 90.674019 104.927707 120.535683 138.878161
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 42.839029 56.093529 71.893431 91.949345 116.547435 145.540602 182.089488
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 32.707690 46.850606 64.943968 89.436476 121.326650 161.007783 213.621393
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 26.833446 41.481496 61.363462 89.733232 128.487584 178.812855 248.203032
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 22.827431 37.772451 59.143266 91.059609 136.474774 197.596065 284.642936
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 17.697210 31.473352 52.278538 84.842694 133.135408 200.492420 299.532425
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 15.645705 29.520697 51.424112 87.015255 141.541690 219.732792 337.559929
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 13.316189 26.702587 48.809529 86.107238 145.119851 232.077474 366.277396
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 12.590021 26.500913 50.305897 91.661335 158.738290 259.650953 418.223265
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.229902 22.957215 45.773467 86.937059 155.851206 262.282955 433.357493
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.407441 22.175719 45.888836 89.900493 165.335298 284.106851 478.197772
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.311468 22.812751 48.586301 97.478470 182.797400 319.112939 544.670447
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.611515 22.261325 49.326025 102.222353 196.802239 350.919998 610.226665
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.488433 20.628129 47.864987 102.966528 204.271326 373.078355 662.494057
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.189124 18.308407 44.697106 100.132619 205.161080 384.406102 697.916073
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.375748 16.952835 43.284439 100.451979 211.611931 405.244413 749.719712
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.766879 15.970027 42.510723 101.910277 220.183739 430.065551 809.204782
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.693786 13.466089 37.953785 95.068690 212.476214 426.032278 819.692993
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.343175 12.908898 37.798859 97.460320 222.689187 454.155340 886.437261
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.857477 11.814946 36.177808 96.460847 226.073280 470.078394 932.596441
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.770506 11.964686 37.677647 102.571998 244.185852 513.804131 1029.531104
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.205238 10.357221 34.397859 97.374253 238.665594 513.349120 1047.638983
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.043365 10.115271 34.713778 100.635151 251.037237 547.129857 1128.862855